If there is going to be a death knell for the US democracy, it will ring on the day the Senate votes to effectively nullify Trump’s impeachment in the House. *
We all know Pelosi was wary that impeachment wouldn’t change the hardened hearts of the GOP in the Senate. She was 100% right about that. After truly stunning, undeniable evidence poured out over the airwaves during the televised impeachment, we can see the GOP just ignore anything that is untoward to their agenda.
What Trump wants now is for impeachment to get to the Senate as soon as possible – so McConnell can shut it down!
Word is the House will vote on impeachment about Christmas time. That’s about as bad of timing as Bugsy Segal had when he opened the Flamingo Hotel on Christmas Day. Trump is welcoming it. In his mind, he’s got this. He’s following a path paved by tutor Vladimir Putin who has done this all before. They even send emissaries to the White House for secret meetings so Donny doesn’t screw up. They have a payoff for all this too. And that comes from our pockets and our souls fellow Americans.
Strategically, there could not be a worse time than the Christmas season to vote on Impeachment. The public will need Christmas, especially this year, to chill with their families. The Evangelists certainly won’t appreciate it.
And the fact-finding part of the investigation is doing a great job. But facts need to register with people when they have the time to focus and let it seep in. Democrats will seem like the bad guys for muddying up Christmas. This is sort of the logic that Professor Turley presented at the trial. He did not say impeachment was invalid, he just said give it time to register with the public.
So why should that fact-revealing process end before Nancy thinks she has the Senate votes? The notion that we need to concentrate on the people’s issues and get this impeachment off our chests is ridiculous. People’s issues, like climate change and health care will not be addressed if Trump remains president. He couldn’t care less about other people and both sides know that.
The big plus of the impeachment process is the drip drip of damning evidence. Once there is Senate acquittal – the drip drip is over. In baseball terms, Trump will own the late innings – as we approach election day. Not smart.
Let’s imagine we don’t vote on impeachment until we are sure we have the Senate votes we need. What happens then?
Trump never gets the Senate acquittal he wants. The GOP accuses the Dems of playing games. Big deal. The GOP are not afraid to play political games. Comey. Gorsuch. Barr. We’d better not be afraid either.
And yes, we may never sense we have those GOP Senate votes, but this strategy at least provides a mechanism to put pressure on the GOP who are running in 2020. And it keeps Russia on the airwaves which is key. Because “no to Russia” is the one thing both sides agree on down deep.
So when the GOP says hurry up – we just say “we’d be happy to hurry up but the President is obstructing justice”. We need to speak with Bolton, Pompeo, Mulvaney, Kushner, Guiliane and Pence. And we want Trump’s taxes. And if Trump wants this all to happen fast (so it’s old news by election time), so do we! All Trump has to do is stop obstructing justice, let people testify and give up his taxes, like an honest person would. His honesty is not really the question here. Even his supporters know he is not honest.
Any of the Dem candidates can beat Trump if the election is fair and maybe none can win if it’s fixed again. Think on that, because Trump is. If Trump is still in office, the 2020 election is not going to be clean and fair. It’s how Putin wins in Russia. Trump and Putin will do anything to win. They even say it.
Ideally, democracy needs Trump OUT of office before the 2020 election. But the GOP won’t abandon him precisely because Trump will do anything to win. They get to ride his coattails without being in on the anything – which includes actual crimes. It’s like having someone steal for you. The GOP are okay with that.
The Vote in Spring Strategy puts impeachment in the Senate while GOP candidates are busy trying to get re-elected. Public pressure can sink in then. Public pressure is the ONLY thing that will get the GOP to turn. Public pressure is what got Nixon out. Public resistance takes time. Public resistance is easier to deploy in the Spring than at Christmas or in the dead of winter. Weather is a factor. Occupy Wall Street was put to rest in the dead of winter. When winter breaks there is a sense of renewal in the people. Be smart. Play with nature – not against it. There is no huge rush here. The election is far away. People have short memories for politics. Trump will do all the worse things in the last 2 weeks – knowing that. He won 2016 in the last 2 weeks.
OUR POST SENATE ACQUITTAL WORLD
There is another important thing to consider when you are 99% certain the Senate will turn this impeachment show off. What does our world look like post-Trump Senate acquittal? And now I want you to think about two words Barr and Trump have floated out there: presidential harassment.
I picture Barr declaring: the impeachment hoax has been put to rest and if the Democrats can’t accept that and continue to divide the country and engage in presidential harassment, they are hurting America. And it should be illegal to hurt America any more now that its all settled. When he starts arresting dissenting voices this place will start resembling Putin’s Russia. They will create an incident. That scenario is a very real possibility and it is also the way Putin got to be POTUS for life. Trump is in Putin’s dictator school now. We know he’s not that smart or strategic. But this is where this country is headed in early 2020 if we let him be acquitted in the Senate before Spring.
This vote later strategy will result in the GOP candidates starting to feel the heat late in their games. -It has the best shot of moving them back into the realm of doing the right thing – even if it’s only to save their own hides. And that is optimal for the Dem cause – which is the cause of truth and democracy.
When and if Nancy senses she has the votes in the Senate, the Dems vote in the House – and not until. Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes rings true here. There is no reason vote to impeach only to lose the game in the Senate. Dems should just add time to the clock. Don’t let all the wind out of our sails.
SECRET BALLOT STRATEGY
There is one other smart way to gamble with our democracy’s future. At Karen Bass’s open house, there was mention that if they got four GOP senators, the House could stipulate the Senate vote would be done by Secret Ballot. If they can get this assured, maybe they give the GOP Senators space to secretly vote their consciousnesses. Without that assured, the fast vote is a fool’s game. And McCarthy just now, as I type this, has begun the exact talking points I mentioned above. They are damning those who demand an honest president.
A loss in the Senate is way worse than a win in the House. And this was Nancy’s original instinct anyway! She had this thought through. What she may not have figured is that she can have it both ways. The impeachment is dredging up facts and witnesses. The process is working. Let it continue as long as we can or until a real opportunity opens up.
The ONE THING that could allow GOP to vote their conscious – and not vote to save their own hides – is a SECRET BALLOT in the SENATE. So now I am amending my request to wait ONLY if you SECURE the 4 GOP Senators to agree to SECRET BALLOT. Then I would sleep comfortably knowing that this impeachment will probably work out okay.
There is still NO SENSE in VOTING TO IMPEACH if you KNOW it will be shut down in the SENATE.
I want to warn you again about BARR. If TRUMP is acquitted in the SENATE, they have already put out the meme PRESIDENTIAL HARASSMENT. BARR can try to make it illegal to HARASS the president. He can arrest some dissidents. And then this place begins to look like PUTIN ( and Stalin’s ) RUSSIA.
Thank You for your serious considerations.
These next three posts outline strategies to win back control of our country and begin to undo the loss we experienced in the Cyber War of 2016. Ignore at the peril of democracy. If you are a businessman, your biz and your way of life eventually go too. Putin now owns all the big businesses in Russia. He’s not been there so long either. How did that happen? Get it yet?
Joseph Aronesty – my name at gmail
I was a classmate to Trump at Penn in 67 and worked close enough to him in AC from 86 to 99.